{"id":4866,"date":"2026-09-01T17:51:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T17:51:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/budget-2027-which-assumption-could-derail-your-forecast\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T18:35:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T18:35:14","slug":"budget-2027-which-assumption-could-derail-your-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/budget-2027-which-assumption-could-derail-your-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Budget 2027 &#8211; Which assumption could derail your forecast ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns alignfull stk-block-columns stk-block stk-767d202 stk-block-background\" data-block-id=\"767d202\"><style>.stk-767d202 {padding-top:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-right:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-bottom:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-left:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;margin-bottom:0px !important;}.stk-767d202-column{--stk-column-gap:var(--stk--preset--spacing--40, 30px) !important;flex-wrap:wrap !important;--stk-flex-grow:0 !important;row-gap:var(--stk--preset--spacing--40, 30px) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-767d202 {--stk-col-order-1:2 !important;--stk-col-order-2:1 !important;--stk-col-order-3:3 !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk--column-wrap-desktop stk-content-align stk-767d202-column alignwide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-73c8168\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"73c8168\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-73c8168 {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(50% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 1 \/ 2 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-73c8168-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-73c8168-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-16a306d\" id=\"heading-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"16a306d\"><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">Your budget sets out a trajectory. <br>Has it allowed for variances ?<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-952a942\" data-block-id=\"952a942\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Revenue is growing. Margins remain stable. A new hire is planned. An investment is due to be committed in the first half of the year.   <br><br>Taken as a whole, the forecast is coherent.<br><br>But what happens if growth is weaker than expected? If payment periods lengthen? If two percentage points of margin are lost, or if a hire is made several months before the increase in activity it was intended to support ?  <br><br>A budget can be perfectly well constructed and still rest on a much more fragile balance than it may appear.<br><br>The question, therefore, is not simply whether the assumptions adopted for 2027 are reasonable.<br><br><strong><em>You also need to know which one would be enough to force a decision to be reconsidered.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-d038e4c stk-block-background stk--has-background-overlay\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"d038e4c\"><style>.stk-d038e4c {background-image:url(https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bui-hoang-long-b.jpg) !important;background-position:center center !important;background-repeat:no-repeat !important;background-size:cover !important;}.stk-d038e4c:before{opacity:0 !important;}@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-d038e4c {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(50% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 1 \/ 2 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-d038e4c-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-d038e4c-inner-blocks\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-6857937\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"6857937\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-6857937 {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-6857937-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-6857937-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-icon-list stk-block-icon-list stk-block stk-6b9fb62\" data-block-id=\"6b9fb62\"><style>.stk-6b9fb62 {--stk-icon-list-column-count:3 !important;margin-bottom:0px !important;}.stk-6b9fb62 .stk-block-icon-list-item__content{margin-inline:auto !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-6b9fb62 {--stk-icon-list-column-count:1 !important;--stk-icon-list-row-gap:12px !important;}}<\/style><svg style=\"display:none\"><defs><g id=\"stk-icon-list__icon-svg-def-6b9fb62\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 190 190\"><polygon points=\"173.8,28.4 60.4,141.8 15.7,97.2 5.1,107.8 60.4,163 184.4,39 173.8,28.4\"\/><\/svg><\/g><\/defs><\/svg><ul class=\"stk-block-icon-list__ul stk-block-icon-list--column\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-stackable-icon-list-item stk-block-icon-list-item stk-block stk-ab98d3c\" data-block-id=\"ab98d3c\"><div class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__content\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><use xlink:href=\"#stk-icon-list__icon-svg-def-6b9fb62\"><\/use><\/svg><\/div><\/span><span class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__text\">Test the assumptions<\/span><\/div><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-stackable-icon-list-item stk-block-icon-list-item stk-block stk-584b152\" data-block-id=\"584b152\"><div class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__content\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><use xlink:href=\"#stk-icon-list__icon-svg-def-6b9fb62\"><\/use><\/svg><\/div><\/span><span class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__text\">Identify the thresholds<\/span><\/div><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-stackable-icon-list-item stk-block-icon-list-item stk-block stk-5b76ec0\" data-block-id=\"5b76ec0\"><div class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__content\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><use xlink:href=\"#stk-icon-list__icon-svg-def-6b9fb62\"><\/use><\/svg><\/div><\/span><span class=\"stk-block-icon-list-item__text\">Prepare the decisions<\/span><\/div><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns stk-block-columns stk-block stk-29163e4\" data-block-id=\"29163e4\"><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk-content-align stk-29163e4-column\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-4a5ee40\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"4a5ee40\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-4a5ee40-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-4a5ee40-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-e4e2e86\" data-block-id=\"e4e2e86\"><style>.stk-e4e2e86 .stk-img-wrapper{aspect-ratio:4\/3 !important;height:auto !important;}@media screen and (max-width:999px){.stk-e4e2e86 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-e4e2e86 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4513\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"1707\" height=\"2560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-scaled.jpg 1707w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-1024x1536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/david-edkins-9-38WfxpTx8-unsplash-1365x2048.jpg 1365w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1707px) 100vw, 1707px\" \/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-3249a7c\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"3249a7c\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-3249a7c-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-3249a7c-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-efa9d22\" data-block-id=\"efa9d22\"><style>.stk-efa9d22 .stk-img-wrapper{aspect-ratio:4\/3 !important;height:auto !important;}@media screen and (max-width:999px){.stk-efa9d22 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-efa9d22 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4511\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/sergio-zhukov-3pBOTOdnnV0-unsplash.jpg\" width=\"150\" height=\"300\"\/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-0613232\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"0613232\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-0613232-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-0613232-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-8c8fd5f\" data-block-id=\"8c8fd5f\"><style>.stk-8c8fd5f .stk-img-wrapper{aspect-ratio:4\/3 !important;height:auto !important;}@media screen and (max-width:999px){.stk-8c8fd5f .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-8c8fd5f .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4512\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"1707\" height=\"2560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-scaled.jpg 1707w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-1024x1536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/mike-cummings-k2aXiJy-CHU-unsplash-1365x2048.jpg 1365w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1707px) 100vw, 1707px\" \/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-9560a81\" data-block-id=\"9560a81\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text has-text-align-center\">The current environment makes this even more important. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.banque-france.fr\/system\/files\/2026-08\/BDF265-3_PME-ETI_web2_0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Banque de France<\/a>, revenue among SMEs excluding micro-enterprises increased by only <strong>1.5% in 2025<\/strong>, compared with an average of <strong>4.2% between 1997 and 2019<\/strong>. Financial fundamentals remain broadly sound, but the debt-servicing capacity of some businesses has weakened, while the apparent cost of debt for SMEs rose slightly again in 2025.  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-bf02e26\" data-block-id=\"bf02e26\"><style>.stk-bf02e26 {height:30px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns alignfull stk-block-columns stk-block stk-630688b\" data-block-id=\"630688b\"><style>.stk-630688b {margin-top:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;margin-bottom:nullpx !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk-content-align stk-630688b-column alignwide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-015cab5\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"015cab5\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-015cab5-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-015cab5-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-7a48fae\" id=\"heading-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"7a48fae\"><style>.stk-7a48fae {margin-bottom:0px !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">Test what could actually undermine your budget<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-d1ee1c6\" data-block-id=\"d1ee1c6\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text has-text-align-center\">A forecast becomes a management tool when it makes it possible to identify the variances that could force a decision to be reconsidered.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns stk-block-columns stk-block stk-8ef3965\" data-block-id=\"8ef3965\"><style>.stk-8ef3965-column{flex-wrap:wrap !important;--stk-flex-grow:0 !important;row-gap:var(--stk--preset--spacing--50, clamp(30px, 5vw, 50px)) !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk--column-wrap-desktop stk-content-align stk-8ef3965-column\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-cac1021\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"cac1021\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-cac1021 {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-cac1021-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-cac1021-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-card stk-block-card stk-block stk-915ae97 is-style-default\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"915ae97\"><style>.stk-915ae97 .stk-block-card__image{aspect-ratio:2\/1 !important;height:350px !important;}.stk-915ae97 .stk-block-card__image img{object-position:51% 49% !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk--no-padding stk-container stk-915ae97-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><figure class=\"stk-block-card__image stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4514\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"1707\" height=\"2560\" alt=\"Budget 2027 : 5 seuils essentiels \u00e0 tester avant validation\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-scaled.jpg 1707w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-768x1152.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-1024x1536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/saul-brotheridge-b4pf7dWX2t8-unsplash-1365x2048.jpg 1365w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1707px) 100vw, 1707px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"stk-block-card__content\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-915ae97-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-c1b31f4\" id=\"c-title-1-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"c1b31f4\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">A budget can be coherent and still be fragile<\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-a78718e\" data-block-id=\"a78718e\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">A forecast necessarily relies on assumptions.<br><br>Activity levels, selling prices, margins, payroll costs, investments, payment terms and financing costs : each variable contributes to the expected outcome.<br><br>The risk emerges when several decisions simultaneously depend on the same favourable assumption.<br><br>Expected growth may, for example, justify a new hire, finance an investment and enable the business to absorb an increase in fixed costs.<br><br>As long as the assumption holds, the model works.<br><br>But if activity grows more slowly than expected, <strong>several balances may be affected at the same time <\/strong>: margins, cash flow, investment capacity or the ability to meet financial commitments.<br><br>Testing a budget is therefore less about multiplying scenarios than identifying the assumptions on which its robustness genuinely depends.<br><br><strong><em>Not all assumptions carry the same weight.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-54d8bf3\" data-block-id=\"54d8bf3\"><style>.stk-54d8bf3 {height:30px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-daed51b\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"daed51b\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-daed51b {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-daed51b-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-daed51b-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-card stk-block-card stk-block stk-6776d6d is-style-default\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"6776d6d\"><style>.stk-6776d6d .stk-block-card__image{height:350px !important;}.stk-6776d6d .stk-block-card__image img{object-position:49% 37% !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk--no-padding stk-container stk-6776d6d-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><figure class=\"stk-block-card__image stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4515\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/f-dallay-PtdSGrUAEgI-unsplash-2048x2048.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"stk-block-card__content\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-6776d6d-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-e9968f5\" id=\"c-title-2-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"e9968f5\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">Do not simply forecast the downside scenario. Identify the breaking point. <\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-bedd200\" data-block-id=\"bedd200\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">The traditional budgeting approach often involves building several scenarios : <strong>base, upside and downside.<\/strong><br><br>This method remains useful, but it can be complemented by a different question :<br><br><strong>At what level of variance does the planned decision cease to be sustainable ?<\/strong><br><br>In the financial sector, this approach is used in particular in <strong>reverse stress testing exercises<\/strong>. The analysis starts with a situation that one wants to avoid, then identifies the events or combinations of factors that could lead to it. <br><br>The European Central Bank notably used this method in 2026 to assess how banks could be affected by different geopolitical risks.<br><br>Applied to business management, the principle is straightforward.<br><br>Instead of asking :<br><br><strong>\u00ab What happens if our revenue falls by 10 % ? \u00bb<\/strong><br><br>the question becomes :<br><br><strong>\u00ab How far can our activity slow before the planned investment has to be deferred ? \u00bb<\/strong><br><br>The same analysis can be applied to the other variables in the budget.<br><br>A decline in margin can undermine the company\u2019s ability to self-finance.<br><br>Longer customer payment periods can create a cash requirement even while the business remains profitable.<br><br>An increase in payroll costs incurred too early can significantly reduce the company\u2019s room for manoeuvre.<br><br>A higher cost of financing can alter the economics of an investment.<br><br>The objective is not to systematically look for the worst-case scenario.<br><br><strong><em>It is to identify the limits beyond which the company needs to act.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-f987c0a\" data-block-id=\"f987c0a\"><style>.stk-f987c0a {height:30px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-3cea07b\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"3cea07b\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-3cea07b {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-3cea07b-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-3cea07b-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-card stk-block-card stk-block stk-3bf9749 is-style-default\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"3bf9749\"><style>.stk-3bf9749 .stk-block-card__image{height:350px !important;}.stk-3bf9749 .stk-block-card__image img{object-position:53% 46% !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk--no-padding stk-container stk-3bf9749-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><figure class=\"stk-block-card__image stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4516\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"1920\" height=\"2560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-scaled.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-225x300.jpg 225w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-768x1024.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-1152x1536.jpg 1152w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/merly-black-CphxQNFoy_o-unsplash-1536x2048.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"stk-block-card__content\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-3bf9749-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-e5ec499\" id=\"c-title-3-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"e5ec499\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">The most important number is not always the one in the budget<\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-4cbfaf1\" data-block-id=\"4cbfaf1\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">A budget may forecast \u20ac10 million in revenue, a given margin and an expected level of cash at the end of the financial year.<br><br>These figures establish a trajectory.<br><br>But when managing the business, other figures may become even more important :<br><br>The margin level below which an investment should be reassessed.<br>The average payment period beyond which working capital requirements become a concern.<br>The cash level that requires financing to be anticipated.<br>The level of activity required before triggering a new hire.<br>The level of debt beyond which a new project should be postponed.<br><br>These thresholds change the way the forecast is interpreted.<br><br>The company no longer simply observes that it is moving away from its budget. <strong>It knows at what point a variance should trigger the reassessment of a decision.<\/strong><br><br>This distinction is particularly important given that business failures remain at a high level. At the end of July 2026, the Banque de France recorded <strong>70,605 business failures over a twelve-month period<\/strong>. The Banque de France nevertheless points out that this situation also comes against a backdrop of growth in the number of businesses, meaning that this figure should not be interpreted in isolation.  <br><br>The objective is not to build a defensive budget.<br><br>It is to identify, early enough, the variances that could affect the company\u2019s ability to act.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-9ea6dc0\" data-block-id=\"9ea6dc0\"><style>.stk-9ea6dc0 {height:30px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-5b936f7\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"5b936f7\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-5b936f7 {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-5b936f7-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-5b936f7-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-card stk-block-card stk-block stk-2a5294b is-style-default\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"2a5294b\"><style>.stk-2a5294b .stk-block-card__image img{object-position:51% 45% !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk--no-padding stk-container stk-2a5294b-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><figure class=\"stk-block-card__image stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-4517\" src=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kyle-hinkson-Fdo7Hr083wY-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"stk-block-card__content\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-2a5294b-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-847beb1\" id=\"c-title-4-placeholder\" data-block-id=\"847beb1\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">A good budget should include decisions prepared in advance<\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-8d26bd4\" data-block-id=\"8d26bd4\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">A forecast becomes particularly useful when the thresholds identified are linked to specific actions.<br><br>If margins deteriorate beyond a defined level, which investment can be deferred ?<br><br>If customer payment periods increase significantly, at what point should collection efforts be stepped up or working capital financing be reviewed ?<br><br>If activity grows more slowly than expected, which hires can be postponed without affecting operations ?<br><br>If cash falls below a defined threshold, when should discussions with financing partners begin ?<br><br>These decisions are easier to make when they have been considered before the variance occurs.<br><br>Conversely, waiting until the difficulty appears in the accounts often places management in a reactive position.<br><br><strong><em>A budget should therefore do more than forecast numbers. It should prepare decisions. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-d134bce\" data-block-id=\"d134bce\"><style>.stk-d134bce {height:30px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns alignfull stk-block-columns stk-block stk-7213551 stk-block-background\" data-block-id=\"7213551\"><style>.stk-7213551 {padding-top:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-right:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-bottom:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;padding-left:var(--stk--preset--spacing--70, 3.38rem) !important;margin-bottom:0px !important;}.stk-7213551-column{--stk-column-gap:var(--stk--preset--spacing--40, 30px) !important;flex-wrap:wrap !important;--stk-flex-grow:0 !important;row-gap:var(--stk--preset--spacing--40, 30px) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-7213551 {--stk-col-order-1:2 !important;--stk-col-order-2:1 !important;--stk-col-order-3:3 !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk--column-wrap-desktop stk-content-align stk-7213551-column alignwide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-b96c5ed stk-block-background stk--has-background-overlay\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"b96c5ed\"><style>.stk-b96c5ed {background-image:url(https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/pexels-chinar-minar-1265133847-23657538-scaled.jpg) !important;}@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-b96c5ed {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(50% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 1 \/ 2 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-b96c5ed-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-b96c5ed-inner-blocks\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-ae98fa5\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"ae98fa5\"><style>.stk-ae98fa5-inner-blocks{justify-content:center !important;}@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-ae98fa5 {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(50% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 1 \/ 2 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-ae98fa5-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk--column-flex stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-ae98fa5-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-0c190be\" id=\"kaerus-analyse-notamment\" data-block-id=\"0c190be\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">KAERUS analyses in particular<\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-64cd0e4\" data-block-id=\"64cd0e4\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">&#8211; The assumptions that genuinely determine expected performance<br>&#8211; Their impact on margins, working capital requirements and cash flow<br>&#8211; The consistency between activity levels, recruitment and investment<br>&#8211; The financing capacity available for planned decisions<br>&#8211; The thresholds beyond which certain trade-offs should be reassessed<br>&#8211; The indicators that make it possible to identify a significant variance early enough<br><br><br>This makes it possible to distinguish between variations with no major consequences and those that can genuinely alter the company\u2019s trajectory.<br> <br>It also helps avoid a common pitfall: continuing to measure the variance against the budget when<strong> the decision based on that budget should already have been reviewe<\/strong>d.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-417537e\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"417537e\"><style>@media screen and (min-width:690px){.stk-417537e {flex:var(--stk-flex-grow, 1) 1 calc(100% - var(--stk-column-gap, 0px) * 0 \/ 1 ) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-417537e-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-417537e-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-bfb21c6\" id=\"prevoir-2027-ne-consiste-pas-a-deviner-2027\" data-block-id=\"bfb21c6\"><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-align-center\">Forecasting 2027 is not about guessing 2027<\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-2eff9a1\" data-block-id=\"2eff9a1\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">No forecast can predict twelve months of business activity with complete precision.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-de4d024\" data-block-id=\"de4d024\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Its quality therefore does not depend solely on how close the actual outcome is to the figure originally forecast.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-31daebb\" data-block-id=\"31daebb\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">It also depends on its ability to reveal the variables to which the company is genuinely exposed and to give management enough time to act.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-27a9f57\" data-block-id=\"27a9f57\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">A robust budget is not one in which every assumption proves correct.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-b833346\" data-block-id=\"b833346\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\"><strong><em>It is one that remains useful when they do not.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-fa6c062\" data-block-id=\"fa6c062\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Kind regards,<br><strong>Rabah Lamraoui<\/strong><br><strong>Chartered Accountant<\/strong><br><a href=\"http:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/\">www.kaerus.fr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Your budget sets out a trajectory. Has it allowed for variances ? Revenue is growing. Margins remain stable. A new hire is planned. An investment is due to be committed in the first half of the year. Taken as a whole, the forecast is coherent. But what happens if growth is weaker than expected? If [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4865,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,34,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-accounting","category-advisory","category-audit-and-due-diligence"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4866"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4873,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866\/revisions\/4873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4865"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kaerus.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}